In S&P Global’s Look Forward series, the research focuses on the most important themes behind the development of global supply chains to 2030. Citing pressures from geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions, and looming threats from climate change, along with technological advances, S&P says these things have enabled a re-evaluation of global outsourcing as countries and companies race to deal with today’s trade patterns.
Highlights from the report include:
- S&P Global expects global trade will grow at a compound rate of 3.3% through to 2028, outpacing GDP growth (2.6%). Southeast Asia and emerging markets will lead supply chain expansion
- Supply chain policies will continue to shift towards national security priorities, increased protectionism, resource-guarding, and sanctions. Investment subsidies could increase inflation
- Higher financing costs reduce the ability and willingness to invest in supply chain resilience; businesses want to cut risks and boost profitability
- Foreign direct investments include Southeast Asia and Mexico as reshoring destinations
- Workforce growth disparity between developed and developing economies will disadvantage industrialized market supply chains
- Despite transporting 45% of global trade by value, the container shipping industry will find it hard to finance its decarbonization, with cost burdens being an obstacle
According to Edouard Tavernier, President, S&P Global Mobility. “This edition of Look Forward brings together the best of S&P Global research to spotlight the themes shaping supply chains, providing our customers the fresh focus and perspectives to stay ahead.”
For more insights from Look Forward: Supply Chain (Volume 5 | February 2024), please visit: https://www.spglobal.com/look-forward/supply-chain
